At this stage our research suggests VH-MDX is located in the area north, east and south of the Gloucester Tops.
This area broadly spans from the Kerripit River near Rawdon Vale down through the Gloucester River Valley to the Upper Wangat River Valley and Whispering Gully.
Shown below is an overview image presenting our Most Likely Extent (MLE) boundary (red ‘D’) which limits our full scale search operations and our Most Probable Area (MPA) (coloured ellipsoids) that is our current focus search area. The MPA is not a hard boundary and VH-MDX may be located anywhere in the MLE.
In fact the MLE is in many ways the most useful boundary.
Why do we currently think VH-MDX is in here? Because elements of the following research findings coalesce:
- Radar fix characteristics
- Radar propagation analysis
- Altitude reports from the pilot
- Information from transcripts and interviews/ discussions
- Dead reckoning (DR) analysis.
The MPA is likely to change with time as new information comes to hand.
Why? Because new information will be found or a better interpretation of existing information will occur. BSAR NSW will move to where research outcomes take us.
BSAR NSW view VH-MDX as a long term task with significant change along the way.