Presently, our research suggests VH-MDX is most probably located in the general area around and within the Gloucester Tops.
This area broadly spans from the Kerripit River near Rawdon Vale down through the Gloucester River Valley to the Upper Wangat River Valley and the Upper Chichester River Valley. This Most Probable Area (MPA) is shown as a blue boundary in the picture below.
But VH-MDX could also likely be inside the Most Likely Extent (MLE) boundary (red outline) or even beyond.
BRG even conducts searches outside these areas when evidence suggests we should however the majority of searches are conducted in these areas. The MPA and MLE are not a hard boundaries and VH-MDX may be located outside these.
The MLE is in many ways the most useful boundary.
Why do we currently think VH-MDX is in here? Because elements of the following research findings coalesce:
- Radar fix characteristics
- Radar propagation analysis
- Altitude reports from the pilot
- Information from transcripts and interviews/ discussions
- Dead reckoning (DR) analysis.
The MPA is likely to change with time as new information comes to hand.
Why? Because new information will be found, a better interpretation of existing information will occur or new research analysis techniques will be applied. We will move to where research outcomes take us.
We view VH-MDX as a long term task with significant change along the way.