Presently, our research suggests VH-MDX is most probably located in the general area around and within the Gloucester Tops.
This Most Probable Area (MPA) broadly spans from the Kerripit River near Rawdon Vale down through the Gloucester River Valley to the Whispering Gulley, Upper Wangat River Valley and the Upper Chichester River Valley.
But VH-MDX could also be outside this most probable area and that is why we have another area of interest larger and encompassing the most probable area described (The Most Likely Extent- MLE). This area extends further out to Invergorden, Avon River State Forest and the Patterson River.
The MPA and MLE are not hard boundaries and VH-MDX may also be located outside of these. BRG does conduct searches outside of these areas when evidence suggests we should however the majority of searches are conducted in the MPA and MLE.
The MLE is in many ways the most useful boundary.
Why do we currently think VH-MDX is in here? Because elements of the following research findings coalesce:
- Radar fix characteristics
- Radar propagation analysis
- Altitude reports from the pilot
- Information from transcripts and interviews/ discussions
- Dead reckoning (DR) analysis.
The MPA is likely to change with time as new information comes to hand.
Why? Because new information will be found, a better interpretation of existing information will occur or new research analysis techniques will be applied. We will move to where research outcomes take us.
We view VH-MDX as a long term task with significant change along the way.