The final area in the series is the Most Probable Area (MPA). This is the smallest area in the series and defines the area where VH-MDX is most probably located based on current research.
What is this area based on?
Deviations and flight path assumptions viewed as the most probable for the flight are used.
More assumption is used in this model than the other two analyses thus, there is increased risk of this area moving significantly with time.
Why is the MPA needed?
To suggest an area to focus on for detailed searching and full-scale search operations. The MPA is also used to filter witness reports.
How is the MPA used?
Non-reactive (not based on new witness evidence), detailed or planned full-scale search operations are to be conducted within this area.