The Most Likely Extent (MLE) analysis defines a flight extent boundary and results in the second smallest area of the series.

What is the boundary based on?
The MLE  considers deviation values that are based on what current VH-MDX research has shown to be likely or likely maximums.

Accordingly compared to the MPE, increased risk is taken on and the boundary has more chance of moving with time.

Why is the MLE needed?
Generation of a smaller Most Probable Area (MPA) that will remain stagnant with time is viewed as unlikely. The MLE offers a larger but more stable area within which VH-MDX is likely located within. This assists in directing remote sensing operations or resources for focused searches responding to imagery or other witness reports.

How is the MLE used?
The MLE forms a limit to where the following operations should be carried out:

  • Full-scale or high resource searches
  • Remote sensing operations

The MLE also provides a boundary to validate or quash VH-MDX flight path theories.

A finer filter with moderate risk is provided by this analysis compared to the larger Maximum Possible Extent (MPE) but it does not exclude potential VH-MDX impact areas as the MPA does.

In many ways the MLE is the most important area of the series as it defines the likely boundary within which VH-MDX is located.

<The MLE is being updated>